The Case Against Branded Search Ads

In a famous 2012 experiment, eBay turned off paid search ads in entire US markets to see exactly how it would affect their traffic and sales. The results revealed that shutting off branded search ads did not drop overall traffic because users searching for the brand simply clicked the organic search link instead. This matters because it proves that many of the clicks you buy through branded search ads are clicks you would have received for free anyway.

As media buyers and store owners, we often look at our platform dashboards and celebrate a high return on ad spend from branded terms. However, we must constantly question whether those ads are actually driving incremental sales or if they are just taking credit for customers who had already decided to buy from us. This classic test shows the danger of relying solely on platform-reported metrics.

in 2012 ebay ran an experiment most companies would never approve. they turned off paid search ads in entire US markets and watched what happened.

What changed

• The eBay experiment: In a famous experiment, eBay turned off paid search ads in entire US markets.
• No drop in brand traffic: Shutting off branded search did not drop traffic because users just clicked the organic link.
• Buying free clicks: The paid ads were simply buying clicks that were already free.
• Negative return on non-brand: Non-brand keywords worked only on new and infrequent users, while frequent buyers consumed most of the budget and remained unmoved, resulting in a negative net average return.

Why it matters for your numbers

When you run branded search ads, your ad platform dashboard will show a very high return on ad spend. However, this experiment shows that this return is often an illusion because the ads are simply buying clicks that were already free. If a user searches directly for your brand name, they already have a high intent to visit your site. If your paid ad is not there, they will almost always click your organic listing, meaning you are paying for traffic you would have received anyway.

Additionally, your non-brand search campaigns can also suffer from poor efficiency if they are not properly targeted. If your budget is being consumed by frequent, existing buyers who would have purchased regardless of the ad, your net average return will turn negative. When you do not distinguish between truly incremental new users and existing frequent buyers, you end up wasting your acquisition budget on people who are already loyal to your brand.

What I would do

• Stop trusting the platform dashboard: Stop relying entirely on your ad platform's attribution reports to measure the success of your branded search campaigns.
• Run a geo-split test: Turn off your branded search ads in specific geographic markets and monitor whether your organic search traffic rises to catch the traffic.
• Analyze your buyer segments: Review your non-brand campaigns to determine if your budget is being consumed by frequent, existing buyers rather than new users.
• Reallocate your search budget: Shift your ad spend away from keywords that simply cannibalize your organic traffic and focus on channels that drive true incremental growth.

To find out if your ads are actually driving new sales, you need an independent view of your customer journeys. At TrueROAS, we track your conversions server-side and independent of the ad platforms, helping you see which clicks are truly incremental.

Source: r/PPC

If your numbers look off after this week, grab 20 minutes with me and we will look at your attribution together: Book a call with Rasmus.